All prices are in Canadian dollars.

Planning for the Next Crisis: A primer on Behavioral Economics and Decision-Making

Date:   Feb 20, 2021 - Feb 20, 2021
Time:   1:00 PM (EST)

During the global COVID19 pandemic, people can no longer use historic run rates as the basis for production/procurement/demand planning; they are scrambling to get a better read on what is happening with consumers, the market, and how to respond to it. Business intelligence has never factored more substantially into corporate planning, but if organizations have not measured and mitigated their unconscious biases and heuristics, they will be trading one problem for another.  Recent advances in Behavioral Economics have put a host of powerful new insights and tools into the hands of planners that can mitigate common problems in forecasting and planning processes – namely, biases from across the organization that make their way into the forecast. By its nature, every human touchpoint includes a degree of subconscious bias and heuristics, but by identifying them we are able to put in place nudges and safeguards that minimize their impact and improve the quality of planning.

Learning outcomes:

  1. A primer in Behavioral Economics (BE). What it is, and how it can work for your organization.
  2. How to identify some of the most common heuristics and biases at play in operations planning (from procurement to demand planning to supply planning).
  3. What steps to take to minimize the risk of judgment bias in forecasts. 
  4. The value of FVA and decision trees, and other practices to improve planning performance.

Agenda:

1. Workshop Introduction

2. Intro to Behavioral Science

  • Intro deck
  • Drivers of influence?
  • Intro to Behavioral Economics Principles
    • what is BE + a brief history
    • prospect theory             
    • loss aversion + reflection effect
    • intertemporal choice
    • framing effect
    • mental accounting
    • appetite = preference + perception
    • representativeness, availability, anchoring & adjustment
    • quantitative valuations & decisions
    • Group Exercises
      • as a class: breakdowns in Expected Utility Theory
      • breakout groups: case study – Robert McNamara & the Vietnam War

3. Unconscious Biases and Heuristics in Demand Planning

  • Introduction
  • Examples of Unconscious Biases and Heuristics in Demand Planning
    • Human touchpoints in forecasting
    • Types of Bias
    • The place for judgment in demand planning
    • Heineken Case study
    • Exercise – Cluster Illusion and Framing Effect
    • Mitigation Framework
      • Forecast Value Add
      • Adjustment Decision Trees
      • Comet Charts
      • Exercise – Comet Chart interpretation

Faculty

Jonathon Karelse is the CEO of NorthFind Management, and is a global leader in demand planning, operations, predictive analytics and IBP. He combines extensive experience with the latest best practices to improve supply chain operations, optimally
leveraging people, processes and tools.

Jonathon is leading the conversation that Behavioral Economics represents the next big idea for planning in most companies. He believes that by understanding the causes of biases and heuristics in planning, organizations can make rapid improvements in real-world performance. As a frequent contributor to the Supply Chain Council of Canada, APICS, the Association for Supply Chain Management, and the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), Jonathon tracks trends and directly influences best practices in Demand Planning and Integrated Business Planning (IBP). His work with NorthFind was recognized in 2020 by Supply Chain Brain – Top 100 Great Supply Chain Partners – and by Supply and Demand Chain Executive: Top 100 Supply Chain Projects.

He has been cited for his work on Forecast Value Add (FVA) analysis; the integration of Judgment and Business Intelligence into statistical forecasting; and Conflict Resolution in consensus forecasting. Jonathon is a Director of the Eagle Ridge Hospital Foundation where he is Chair of the Governance and Strategic Action Planning Committees. He is a graduate of the MIT Sloan
School of Management, a member of the 2019 Management Excellence cohort at Harvard Business School, and is a member of the Harvard Business Review’s Advisory Council.

Course Pricing

Early bird pricing available until January 20, 2021.

Early bird member: CAD$99 (+ applicable provincial tax)

Early bird non-member: CAD$129 (+ applicable provincial tax)

Regular member: CAD$129 (+ applicable provincial tax)

Regular non-member: CAD$159 (+ applicable provincial tax)

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Those who complete the course will receive a digital badge from Supply Chain Canada and SCMPs will earn 3 CPD credits (we kindly ask members to enter their activity independently following this course).

Date: Saturday, February 20, 2021 from 1:00PM - 4:00PM EDT
Location: Zoom video conference platform

Registration/Enrollment

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